NRF Retail’s Big Show: Closing and summary

The three-day National Retail Federation ‘Big Show’ has come to a close in Manhattan, New York.  

Over the three days, Professor Gary Mortimer from the Queensland University of Technology, Business School attended more than 20 sessions, undertook retail tours, and visited food and technology innovation hubs to capture and share the latest insights for ARA members. 

Here are his 13 takeaways from the Big Show:

• Tariffs: There were genuine concerns expressed, some publicly, others privatively, at the Trump Administration threats of tariffs. Retailers and retail associations were cognizant of what even a threat of tariffs might do to the sector and jobs. Some of those concerns rested with how other nation states might respond. Even US retailers I spoke to indicated that they were already strategizing how they would respond, in relation to inventories and sourcing, if tariffs were implemented. 
• Border Security: Again, both publicly and privately, retailers were concerned about the Trump Administration’s stance on border security and the potential removal of undocumented illegal workers. It was estimated there were approximately 6 million undocumented workers in the US, 709,000 working in retail, and just over a million in hospitality.
• Californian Wildfires: Most presenters, particularly from the west coast, expressed empathy with communities in the Los Angeles region. Retailers and brands are today expected to play a bigger role in humanitarian actions when disaster hit. Retailers are uniquely positioned to play an important role in both disaster preparedness and recovery. 
• Artificial Intelligence (AI): As Azita Martin from NVIDIA suggested, those who started early in eCommerce have dominated. So, will those retailers who start early with AI. It must be driven from a top down position. Almost every keynote presentation I attended touched on AI in some way. Discussion around the emergence of AI Agents (Agentic AI) was evident.
• TikTok Shop: Last year, everyone was talking about AI, this year, everyone was talking about TikTok Shop. Multiple brands are already working with TikTok Shop. Publicly and privately, retailers were expressing concerns about a potential US band on the platform by the new Trump Administration. A band would naturally push traffic to Amazon Live and other social commerce sites. 
• The Speed of Inventory: Inventory was top-of-mind and widely discussed among global retailers. Customers are fickle. If they find something they love, but it is not available they next time they walk in, they’ll pick something else…and that ‘something else’ might become their new ‘love’. Several presentations covered a variety of methods, technology, software and AI solutions to deliver more accurate inventory forecasting.
• A New Consumer: While consumers are still powering the US economy, were there concerns about the ‘Body Builder’ consumer – ‘jacked up’ or ‘artifactually boosted’ through government stimulus, demonstrating ‘high consumption’ and ‘high productivity’ (shopping a lot), and ‘low body fat’ (low financial reserves’). Goldman Sach’s CEO David Solomon acknowledged that economists and bankers were watching this segment closely. “There is some concern that inflation is cutting into some household budgets, so we are more cautious with our thinking and investments. Inflation is appearing to be ‘sticky’.”
• Geo-tracking and Geo-fencing: Online, you can see what customer is looking at, how long they are looking (dwell time) and where they are going, but retailers are essentially blind to behaviour instore. It was acknowledged that retailers were beginning to utilise ‘opt-in’ geolocation technology to pinpoint a customer’s physical location through their mobile device. This would allow the retailer to deliver targeted marketing campaigns, personalised shopping experiences, and offer in-store navigation. It also enables location-based promotions, reminders, and product information when customers are near a store or within a specific area (geofencing), ultimately driving foot traffic and sales. 
• Rebirth and Rebranding: Several retailers spoke about the need to rebrand, re-energise or re-position to remain relevant. Conversations about Macy’s, Bluemercury and Bloomingdales focussed the company’s growth strategy, ‘A Bold New Chapter’ and showcased how Macy’s Inc, is evolving to meet the increasing demands of today’s consumers while shaping a future that is both inspiring and enduring. After slating 150 store closures by 2026, it was evident, sometimes ‘you need to shrink to grow’.  
• Physical: Physical retail is not dead. LEGO, IKEA and Sephora all investing in stores. The role of the store is very much about ‘storytelling’. The store is the centre of everything, otherwise you can end up spend millions on marketing communications just to educate online consumers about your product.
• Sustainability: While no retailer indicated a shift away from sustainability or CSR strategies, there was growing criticism of the costs of regulation, reporting and compliance due to the significant investments in new technologies, processes, and data collection systems. These investments lead to increased operational expenses, while also demanding dedicated staff time to manage reporting requirements, all while navigating complex and evolving regulatory landscapes that can result in penalties for non-compliance, potentially impacting their bottom line and reputation if not managed effectively.

So, what was missing? 

• Loss Prevention: In Australia, the cost of retail crime was up 40% over two years. Almost 2% of turnover was lost in the 2024 financial year, costing Australian retailers $7.79 billion. Despite theft costing US retailers US$112.1 billion in 2022, I could not find a presentation that addressed this topic or offered solutions. 
• Customer aggression: In November, hardware giant Bunnings shared footage of team members being confronted by aggressive and abusive customers. A 2023 survey of over 4,600 Australian retail workers found the prevalence of abuse and violence by customers has not improved since the previous surveys. In the previous 12 months, 87% of workers said they had experienced verbal abuse from a customer, and 12.5% had been the victim of physical violence, up from 8% in the 2021. Despite the growth in aggressive and violent behaviour being directed toward retail team members, again I did not find a presentation that addressed this topic or offered solutions.